Our party’s stand is that to reduce population, there should be a law for ‘hum do, hamara ek’ or one family, one child,” the Minister said. China reverted to a two-child policy after its one-child policy was terminated in 2015 and its restrictions were gradually loosened before it officially ended in 2016. There were exceptions, however, including ethnic minorities, for those whose firstborn was labeled as disabled, and for rural families whose firstborn was not a boy. Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and behavioral finance.
Unintended consequences
- Although China’s fertility rate plummeted faster than anywhere else in the world during the 1970s under these restrictions, the Chinese government thought it was still too high, influenced by the global debate over a possible overpopulation crisis suggested by organizations such as the Club of Rome and the Sierra Club.
- ] though, the Hong Kong government has drastically reduced the quota of births set for non-local women in public hospitals.
- Parents may feel better able to handle additional children when they have greater financial security.
Adam received his master’s in economics from The New School for Social Research and his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in sociology. He is a CFA charterholder as well as holding FINRA Series 7, 55 & 63 licenses. He currently researches and teaches economic sociology and the social studies of finance at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. But you’ve probably noticed it already, if not in your own or extended family, then in your neighbourhood, among your former batchmates and current colleagues. The worry here is that the coming population milestone will push India to adopt knee-jerk population policies. The idea the country should adopt something like China’s former “one-child policy” has been moving from the fringe to the political mainstream.
How does the one child policy impact social and economic outcomes?
The policy mandated that the vast majority of couples in the country could have only one child. The phrase “one-child policy” was used often outside China but it can be a bit misleading. Exceptions were frequently made and local officials had discretion over how population limits were achieved. Despite declining birth rates, some politicians have advocated for the adoption of something like China’s former one-child policy in northern states with large Muslim populations. These calls have less to do with demographic reality, and more to do with majoritarian Hindu nationalist concerns around Muslim and “lower-caste” fertility. China has found that despite reversing course, it cannot undo this rapid demographic transition.
Given Australia’s growing ties to India, it should be concerned about what population policy could mean for the erosion of democratic norms in India. As early as March 2022, reports circulated on Chinese social media that India’s population had already surpassed China’s, though this was later dispelled by experts. India will surpass China as the country with the world’s largest population in 2023, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2022 report.
The one-child policy was initially meant to be a temporary measure but it may have prevented up to 400 million births in the end. China ultimately ended its one-child policy after it became apparent that it might have been too effective. Many Chinese were heading into retirement and the nation’s population had too few young people to provide for the older population’s retirement and healthcare while sustaining continued economic growth. The National Family Planning committee developed the slogan Wan Xi Shao (‘later, longer, and fewer’), which was first enacted in 1973 and was in effect until 1979.[99] This national idea encouraged later marriages and having fewer children. The long-term effects of these demographic shifts that occurred from about 1979 to 2015 include a shrinking labor force and a greater proportion of the population that’s retired. This posed challenges for continued economic growth and the social safety net.
Healthcare improvements
] though, the Hong Kong government has drastically reduced the quota of births set for non-local women in public hospitals. Violators of China’s one-child policy could be fined, forced to have abortions or sterilizations or lose their jobs. As happened at the height of China’s one-child policy, Indians could lose government jobs and more if such laws were passed at the national level. Some Indian states and municipalities have already legislated that people with more than two children are ineligible for government jobs and to stand for political office. one child policy in india Four Indian states with large Muslim populations have already passed versions of a “two-child policy”.
In both countries, skewed sex ratios caused by sex selective abortions have led to a range of social problems, including forced marriages and human trafficking. The one-child policy was managed by the National Population and Family Planning Commission under the central government since 1981. The Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China and the National Population and Family Planning Commission were made defunct and a new single agency, the National Health and Family Planning Commission, took over national health and family planning policies in 2013. China had a rise in the abortion of female fetuses, the number of baby girls left in orphanages, and even infanticides of baby girls with the implementation of the one-child policy and the preference for male children. The efficacy of the policy itself has been challenged, however, because population growth generally slows as societies gain in income as happened in China during this time. The death rate declined, too, as the birth rate declined in China and life expectancy increased.
Savings rate
But despite a lower fertility rate, the country’s population is still growing. Reports surfaced of Chinese women giving birth to their second child overseas, a practice known as birth tourism. Likewise, a Hong Kong passport differs from China’s mainland passport by providing additional advantages.[example needed] Recently[when?
China is also facing a potential labor shortage and will have trouble supporting this aging population through its state services. But in a country where lifestyles are being transformed by capitalism and aspiration, change is brewing. A significant sliver of the middle class — urban, well educated, well-paid — is choosing to have just one child, even when that one is a girl (unusual in a country with a strong bias for male children). The irony is that India’s birth rate and the size of families are decreasing because of women’s own reproductive choices. Many women are getting surgical contraception after having two children (or after having a son). Like past population control policies, they’re targeted at Muslim and lower-caste families, and illustrate a broader Hindu nationalist agenda with anti-democratic tendencies.
If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle. The policy was most effective in urban areas because those in China’s agrarian communities resisted it to a greater extent. In other words, the trend in India is towards smaller families already. As the 2022 UN report itself notes, no drastic intervention from the state is required.
It was a set of laws related to population growth that were implemented in 1979, representing one of the more draconian modern attempts to intervene in a country’s rising demographics. Several methods of enforcement were used, including incentives and sanctions that varied across China. There were financial incentives and preferential employment opportunities for those who complied. The government employed more draconian measures at times, including forced abortions and sterilization.
Countries with increases in national wealth tend to have population growth that slows down, however. The increase in economic growth in China may have helped reduce the number of Chinese newborns over this time, not the other way around. After the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, infant mortality dropped significantly. The “one-child policy” – limiting births per couple through coercive measures – was implemented in the early 1980s, and fertility dropped dramatically. Although China’s fertility rate plummeted faster than anywhere else in the world during the 1970s under these restrictions, the Chinese government thought it was still too high, influenced by the global debate over a possible overpopulation crisis suggested by organizations such as the Club of Rome and the Sierra Club. Most interesting are policies one wouldn’t consider to be related to the birth rate at first glance.